This is a really difficult one for me to read. I don't know if it's tulipmania or an amazing new way of storing wealth.
There is definitely utility in blockchain technology. With bitcoin, the utility is that there a lot of people that believe it has value. It's also able to circumvent regulations.
How many people will purchase bitcoin in the future? How much will they spend? I wouldn't think a billion people would use bitcoin, but a few hundred million is believable.
Global GDP in 2030 ~ $100 trillion
Global population in 2030 ~ $8.5 billion
Average wealth per person, per year, in 2030 ~ $100 trillion/ 8.5 billion = $14285.71
Number of bitcoins in circulation in 2030 ~ 20 million
Currently, around .5% of the world's GDP is bitcoin. If this were to double by 2030, the price of bitcoin would be ~ $50,000. ($1 trillion / 20 million =$50 000) I think it's probably more reasonable to assume at least 2% of the global wealth will be using bitcoin by 2030, making the price of a single bitcoin to be ~$100,000
Of course, governments and banking cartels could wage war on the technology, which would most certainly have an impact on its value.
I honestly don't think they will do anything. They may try in the US, but the rest of the world still exists.
One thing that is difficult to predict is the number of bitcoins that are lost over time. This study found only around 20 million bitcoin addresses had more than $1. This means there are a lot of bitcoin addresses that have a large number of coins in them. Just a few days ago I heard about a guy who lost the password to account worth hundreds of millions of dollars. This would only increase the potential value of bitcoin in the future.
For these reasons, I see bitcoin as a valuable asset with incredible potential over the next decade. But it could collapse tomorrow. I really don't know.
This is a really difficult one for me to read. I don't know if it's tulipmania or an amazing new way of storing wealth.
There is definitely utility in blockchain technology. With bitcoin, the utility is that there a lot of people that believe it has value. It's also able to circumvent regulations.
How many people will purchase bitcoin in the future? How much will they spend? I wouldn't think a billion people would use bitcoin, but a few hundred million is believable.
Global GDP in 2030 ~ $100 trillion
Global population in 2030 ~ $8.5 billion
Average wealth per person, per year, in 2030 ~ $100 trillion/ 8.5 billion = $14285.71
Number of bitcoins in circulation in 2030 ~ 20 million
Currently, around .5% of the world's GDP is bitcoin. If this were to double by 2030, the price of bitcoin would be ~ $50,000. ($1 trillion / 20 million =$50 000) I think it's probably more reasonable to assume at least 2% of the global wealth will be using bitcoin by 2030.
Of course, governments and banking cartels could wage war on the technology, which would most certainly have an impact on its value.
I honestly don't think they will do anything. They may try in the US, but the rest of the world still exists.
One thing that is difficult to predict is the number of bitcoins that are lost over time. This study found only around 20 million bitcoin addresses had more than $1. This means there are a lot of bitcoin addresses that have a large number of coins in them. Just a few days ago I heard about a guy who lost the password to account worth hundreds of millions of dollars. This would only increase the potential value of bitcoin in the future.
For these reasons, I see bitcoin as a valuable asset with incredible potential over the next decade. But it could collapse tomorrow. I really don't know.