Saw in the news, "U.S. hits $38 trillion in debt, after the fastest accumulation of $1 trillion outside of the pandemic." Probably all countries are "in debt" too, right?
That is a significant figure for the U.S. debt. And you are right to suspect that this is a global trend.
The vast majority of countries around the world do carry a national or government debt. In modern economics, having some level of debt is considered normal and is often a result of governments borrowing money to fund public services, infrastructure projects, or manage financial shortfalls.
🌎 Key Points on Global Debt Most Countries Have Debt: It is extremely rare for a country to be completely debt-free. Data from institutions like the IMF and World Bank show that almost every recognized country has a recorded national debt.
A Tool for Growth: Governments often use debt as a tool to invest in the economy (like building roads or schools) or to stimulate growth, which can lead to higher future tax revenues to pay the debt back.
Measuring the Burden: The raw dollar amount of debt, like the U.S. $38 trillion figure, can be misleading on its own. Economists prefer to look at the Debt-to-GDP ratio (Debt as a percentage of Gross Domestic Product) because it measures the debt burden relative to a country's total economic output and its ability to pay it off.
📊 Countries with the Highest and Lowest Debt While the US debt figure is the largest in raw dollar value, other countries have a much higher debt burden when measured relative to their economy (Debt-to-GDP ratio).
Category (Based on Debt-to-GDP Ratio) Example Countries Ratio Range (Approx.) Note
Highest Debt Japan, Sudan, Greece, Singapore, Italy Over 130% - 230% Japan consistently has the highest debt-to-GDP ratio globally.
Lowest Debt Brunei, Kuwait, Afghanistan, Estonia Under 15% These often have small, natural resource-rich economies or very conservative fiscal policies.
Major Economies United States, China, France, Canada Ranges from 60% - 125% The U.S. ratio is currently around 125% of its GDP.
Even countries listed as having the "lowest" debt, such as Brunei and Kuwait, still have a positive debt-to-GDP ratio (e.g., in the range of $2-12%$). The idea of a completely debt-free country is mostly a theoretical concept in the current global financial system.Would you be interested in seeing the Debt-to-GDP ratio for any other specific countries?
so all countries are "in debt"?
That's an excellent question that gets to the heart of modern global finance.
The answer is Yes, almost all countries are "in debt," and having a government debt is generally considered a normal part of running a modern economy.
🎯 The Distinction: Low Debt vs. No Debt While many countries have extremely low debt (especially when measured as a percentage of their economic output), it is exceptionally rare for an independent nation to have absolutely zero national debt.
Why?
Fiscal Tools: Governments issue debt (like bonds) to raise money for various reasons—funding public services, building infrastructure, managing shortfalls, or funding wars/crises. Having this option provides vital economic flexibility.
Financial Systems: Government bonds are the foundation of many global financial systems. They are considered the safest asset and are used by banks, pension funds, and other institutions for regulatory requirements, safe investment, and managing risk. An economy with no government bonds can actually face challenges because it lacks this critical safe asset.
Low Debt Examples: Countries often cited as having the "lowest" debt (like Brunei, Kuwait, Hong Kong SAR, and Liechtenstein) still have a low, positive Debt-to-GDP ratio, not a true zero. They achieve this low ratio through large revenues (often from natural resources like oil/gas) or extremely conservative fiscal policies.
For example, Brunei's Debt-to-GDP ratio has been reported as low as $2.5%$, and Kuwait's around $3.04%$. While nearly debt-free, they technically still have outstanding obligations, meaning they are not truly at zero.In essence, having no debt is possible, but having some debt is the universal norm because it's a necessary tool for managing a complex national economy in the global financial system.
Would you like to know more about the difference between national debt and external debt?
How about the US.. extrapolate this behavior towards debt, into the future.. are you able to see a point and a date for when the system will crap out and I guess it'll be like zimbabwe where they'd use wheelbarrows of cash to buy a loaf of bread. That's where this type of behavior eventually heads towards if you don't ever pay off the debt and it keeps increasing?
That's a very understandable concern, and one that is at the center of the debate among economists and policymakers.
The short answer is that most projections show the US debt is on an "unsustainable path" over the long term, but there is no consensus on an exact date for a catastrophic "crap out," and the US is highly unlikely to experience the kind of hyperinflationary crisis (like Zimbabwe) due to its unique position in the global economy.
📅 The Unsustainable Path: Future Projections Major non-partisan groups like the Congressional Budget Office (CBO) and the Government Accountability Office (GAO) explicitly state that the current fiscal trajectory is unsustainable.
Debt-to-GDP Ratio: This is the most critical measure. The U.S. debt-to-GDP ratio (debt held by the public) has already surpassed 100%. The CBO projects that, if current laws and spending trends continue, this ratio will rise to around 156% by 2055.
Historical Peak: The debt-to-GDP ratio is projected to exceed the historical peak (set just after World War II) around 2029 and continue climbing.
The Tipping Point (The 2050s): Some economic models, like those from the Penn Wharton Budget Model, suggest there is about 20 years for the government to make significant course corrections. They estimate that if no changes are made, the debt dynamics could become truly unsustainable by the 2050s, where "no amount of future tax increases or spending cuts could avoid the government defaulting on its debt."
The primary drivers of this long-term increase are rising net interest costs on the debt, and increasing spending on Social Security and major health care programs (like Medicare) as the population ages.
🚫 Why the U.S. is Not Likely to Become Zimbabwe While the financial path is risky, a hyperinflationary collapse like Zimbabwe or Weimar Germany is considered a very low probability for the U.S. due to fundamental differences in its financial system:
- The U.S. Dollar's Unique Status The U.S. dollar is the world's primary reserve currency. This means:
Global Demand: Countries, central banks, and major corporations around the world need and hold U.S. dollars and Treasury bonds for trade, stability, and security. This creates a massive, constant, global demand for U.S. debt, keeping interest rates lower than they would be otherwise.
Trade Dominance: Most global commodities (especially oil) are priced in U.S. dollars, which reinforces its stability and value.
Zimbabwe, in contrast, was a relatively small economy with a national currency that lacked international credibility or demand.
- The Nature of the Crisis Crises for a major reserve currency nation are more likely to manifest as a slow, painful process called fiscal dominance rather than a sudden hyperinflationary collapse.
Crisis Type Zimbabwe (Hyperinflation) U.S. (Debt Sustainability Risk)
Main Mechanism Government finances deficits by literally printing large amounts of new money (monetizing the debt), rapidly destroying the currency's value. Rising debt crowds out private investment, leads to slower economic growth, and forces the government to spend an ever-increasing amount on interest payments.
Outcome Cash loses value daily; people use wheelbarrows of cash for a loaf of bread. Slower economic growth, lower standards of living, rising interest rates for everyone, and limited government resources for defense, education, or infrastructure.
- The Real Danger: Crowding Out and Financial Crisis The danger is less about hyperinflation and more about fiscal drag and financial crises:
Interest Payments: As debt grows and interest rates rise, the government's annual interest payments start to crowd out other critical spending. Interest is already a massive and growing part of the federal budget.
Slower Growth: High debt forces the government to compete with private businesses for borrowed funds, which can drive up interest rates for everyone (home mortgages, business loans), leading to slower long-term economic growth.
Loss of Confidence: The true "crap out" moment would be when domestic and international investors suddenly lose confidence in the U.S. government's ability to service its debt, leading to a sudden, sharp spike in interest rates, which would precipitate a financial crisis.
In conclusion, while a definitive "date" for a collapse is impossible to predict, the US debt trajectory is a significant long-term structural issue. The path leads toward slower growth and increased financial risk, which is a severe problem, but not the same as the hyperinflation seen in the most extreme historical examples.
Would you like to explore the policy options Congress has to address this debt trajectory, such as spending cuts or tax increases?
who are they paying this debt to?
That is a great question. When people talk about the U.S. government "owing $38 trillion," it can feel abstract, but the debt is actually held by a diverse set of real entities, both inside and outside the country.
The national debt is money owed to anyone who has purchased U.S. Treasury securities (like Treasury bonds, bills, and notes). Think of these as IOUs that the government issues to raise cash.
The owners of this debt fall into two main categories:
- Intragovernmental Holdings (About 20%) This is the debt the government owes to itself. It represents money one part of the government (a trust fund) has temporarily lent to the Treasury for safekeeping.
Social Security Trust Funds: This is the largest single holder of government debt. The Social Security system has historically taken in more money than it paid out and is legally required to invest that surplus in special-issue Treasury securities.
Federal Employee Retirement Funds: Funds set aside for the retirement benefits of federal and military employees.
Medicare Trust Funds: Funds dedicated to the Medicare program.
- Debt Held by the Public (About 80%) This is the money owed to outside investors—individuals, corporations, and governments. This is the portion of the debt that is traded on financial markets and is the focus of most financial and political debate.
A. Domestic Investors (The Largest Share) The majority of the publicly held debt is owned by people and institutions inside the United States.
The Federal Reserve: The U.S. central bank holds a large percentage of the debt. It buys and sells Treasury securities as a tool to manage interest rates and the money supply (a process often called quantitative easing or tightening).
Individual Americans, Banks, and Corporations: This includes you, me, and major U.S. financial entities.
Mutual Funds & Pension Funds: Your 401(k), retirement funds, and investment portfolios hold trillions in U.S. debt because Treasuries are considered a very safe investment.
Insurance Companies & Commercial Banks: They hold Treasuries for liquidity and safety.
State and Local Governments: They often invest their surplus funds into U.S. Treasury securities.
B. Foreign Investors (About 25-30% of Public Debt) Foreign entities, including central banks and private investors, hold a significant portion of the debt, mainly because U.S. Treasury bonds are viewed as the safest and most liquid investment in the world.
Top Foreign Holders (Governments and Institutions) Amount (Approximate)
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Japan Over $1.1 Trillion
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The United Kingdom Over $800 Billion
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China Over $700 Billion
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Cayman Islands Over $400 Billion
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Canada Over $350 Billion
(Note: The Cayman Islands holds a large amount because many international investment funds and financial institutions are legally headquartered there.)
In Summary
Most of the U.S. national debt is owed to Americans—through their retirement funds, the Federal Reserve, and government trust funds. The second largest group is foreign governments and investors, primarily in Asia and Europe, who buy U.S. debt as the ultimate safe haven for their savings and international trade reserves.
Does this breakdown of who holds the debt change how you view the issue?
[continued in comments]
How much of that is due to the current administration's failure to deliver on promised cuts?
Darwinism is false.
[part 1]
Doesn't make sense to buy that stuff if it's obviously not going to do well later in the future
That’s a perfectly logical reaction. If you see the long-term forecast for a company is poor, you wouldn't buy its stock. However, investing in U.S. government debt (Treasury bonds) operates on a completely different set of rules than investing in a normal company.
The demand for U.S. debt persists, even with poor long-term fiscal projections, for three critical reasons: Safety, Liquidity, and Necessity.
The US Advantage: The U.S. government has never defaulted on its debt. Because it can issue debt in its own currency (the U.S. dollar), and because it has the power to tax the largest economy in the world, investors believe the U.S. Treasury will always find a way to pay the money back.
A Promise is a Promise: When a bank, a foreign government, or your pension fund buys a Treasury bond, they are guaranteed to receive their money back when the bond matures (plus interest). This security of principal is the ultimate priority for many investors.
The Alternative is Worse: Compared to any other country's bond (which has a higher risk of actual default) or a corporate bond (where the company can go bankrupt), U.S. Treasuries are seen as the safest asset in the world—the "flight to quality" during a crisis.
The Global Reserve: The market for U.S. debt is the largest and most liquid in the world. This means if you buy $100 billion in Treasuries, you can sell them tomorrow, instantly, without the price crashing. This liquidity is critical for central banks and large financial institutions.
The Collateral: Banks and financial institutions use Treasuries as collateral (security) for countless daily transactions and loans. They need a massive, reliable pool of this asset to function.
Regulatory Requirements: Banks and insurance companies are often required by law to hold a certain amount of super-safe assets like U.S. Treasuries to protect against instability.
Inflation Risk: The true risk is that the interest payments you receive on the bond, or the principal you get back at maturity, won't be able to buy as much in the future because prices have gone up. This is a subtle, slow loss of value, not a sudden collapse.
Interest Rate Risk: If interest rates rise after you buy a bond, the market value of your bond falls (because newer bonds pay more interest). You only lose money if you have to sell it before it matures, which is a major concern for short-term traders but less so for long-term holders like pension funds.
In short, major investors buy U.S. debt not because they think the long-term fiscal outlook is great, but because it offers a guarantee of repayment in dollars that no other investment can match, making it the safest place in the world to park vast sums of money during volatile times.
Do you want to know how the government of a country like Japan—which has an even higher debt-to-GDP ratio than the U.S.—manages to avoid a default?
So they have plans to pay it back?
That is a key distinction. The U.S. government does not currently have a concrete, long-term plan to pay off the entire national debt and return to a zero-debt status.
Instead, the government operates with a rolling, continuous debt cycle. When older bonds (Treasury securities) mature, the Treasury Department issues new debt to pay off the old debt, plus the interest. This process is called refinancing or rollover.
The Current Focus: Managing the Deficit The primary focus of current fiscal debate is not on paying off the $38 trillion debt, but on addressing the annual budget deficit. The deficit is the amount by which the government's spending exceeds its revenue in a given year.
The Debt is the Accumulation of all past deficits (and surpluses).
The Deficit is the Flow that adds to the debt every year.
Because the U.S. government runs a deficit every year, the debt is constantly growing. The Congressional Budget Office (CBO) and other groups project that under current laws, the deficit will continue to add trillions to the national debt every decade.
🏛️ Strategies to Address the Debt (But Not Pay it Off) While there is no "pay off the debt" plan, there are continuous discussions and proposals focused on two main goals:
Policy Options (Often Debated but Hard to Pass):
Spending Cuts: Reducing or slowing the growth of spending on discretionary programs (like defense and infrastructure) or mandatory programs (like Social Security and Medicare).
Tax Increases: Raising income, corporate, or excise taxes, or introducing new taxes like a Value-Added Tax (VAT).
Economic Growth: Rapid and sustained economic growth automatically lowers the Debt-to-GDP ratio because the "GDP" denominator gets larger, increasing the government's ability to handle the debt.
As long as the government can service the debt (i.e., pay the interest payments), which it is currently doing, the system keeps operating.
The danger, as we discussed, is the increasing cost of those interest payments, which are projected to grow faster than defense and Medicare spending in the coming years.
Would you be interested in learning about the specific proposals (e.g., in Social Security or tax reform) that economists suggest to stabilize the debt?
so why are you saying this then earlier, if they're obviously never going to pay it back.. you said:
"The US Advantage: The U.S. government has never defaulted on its debt. Because it can issue debt in its own currency (the U.S. dollar), and because it has the power to tax the largest economy in the world, investors believe the U.S. Treasury will always find a way to pay the money back."
Like, are these guys fucking retarded?
That is a strong and very direct question. It addresses the apparent contradiction between the U.S.'s massive debt and the continued willingness of sophisticated investors to buy it.
When I said, "...investors believe the U.S. Treasury will always find a way to pay the money back," I was referring to avoiding default—which is the key distinction you need to understand.
The Investor’s Definition of "Paying Back" For an investor, "paying back the debt" does not mean the U.S. government will pay the national debt down to $0. It means that when the bond they bought matures, they will receive 100% of their principal (the face value of the bond) plus the promised interest, in U.S. dollars.
This is the promise that the U.S. Treasury has never broken and is what separates it from any other borrower.
Action Meaning for the Investor Implication for the US Debt Level
Default The U.S. government misses an interest payment or fails to return the principal when due. (Never Happened) Investors lose money and flee the market. The financial system collapses.
Rollover/Refinance The U.S. government pays off the maturing bond by issuing a brand new bond to someone else. (This is the Constant Practice) The investor gets paid, but the overall national debt level remains high or grows.
Why Investors Are Not "Retarded" Sophisticated investors (like the government of Japan, central banks, and giant pension funds) are not making a bet that the U.S. will become fiscally prudent; they are making a highly rational, self-interested bet on two things:
The U.S. Dollar (Not the Government) Investors are betting on the stability of the U.S. dollar and the U.S. financial system, which is the cornerstone of global trade. If the U.S. defaults, it is not just a financial loss; it is a global catastrophe that would collapse the value of all other assets. In a crisis, the money flees to the safest place, and that is always the U.S. dollar.
The Lack of Alternatives There is simply no other asset class that offers the sheer size, liquidity, and security of U.S. Treasuries. Where else can a country like China or a fund like BlackRock park trillions of dollars and know with near certainty that they can sell it instantly if needed, and receive their principal when due?
The investors are concerned about the growing debt, but their priority is the safety of their principal. They would rather accept the risk of slow, moderate inflation (which erodes the value of the dollars they get back) than the risk of outright default on debt from any other country or corporation.
In short, they know the system is unsustainable long-term, but they are confident they will always be among the first to get paid back, and there is no safer lifeboat to switch to.
Would you like to explore the specific concept of "monetizing the debt," which is the mechanism that actually leads to hyperinflationary scenarios like Zimbabwe?
So what's gonna happen with all these countries here.. eventually they'll "crap out"? And what's gonna go on then. One world government, eh. That's their plan, eh?
That is a very far-reaching and common concern that connects economics with geopolitical fears.
When looking at the global debt situation, it's important to separate the economic consensus about the consequences from the geopolitical theories about planned outcomes.
A. Crisis in Developed Economies (Like the U.S. or Japan) For major countries that borrow in their own currency (like the U.S. dollar), the crisis is a slow, painful process, not a sudden collapse.
Slower Economic Growth: The most likely outcome is that high debt acts as a drag on growth. Studies suggest that when government debt exceeds around $85%$ of GDP, it starts to noticeably slow down the economy.
Crowding Out: As interest payments consume a growing share of the budget, they crowd out productive public investment in infrastructure, education, and defense, which further reduces future growth.
Loss of Fiscal Maneuverability: The government loses the ability to respond to future crises (like a pandemic or war) because it can't afford to borrow much more without risking an investor panic.
Financial Crisis Risk: The worst scenario is a loss of investor confidence (a sovereign debt crisis). This would cause interest rates to spike, potentially crashing the Treasury market and destabilizing the U.S. and global financial systems.
The outcome is not Zimbabwe-style hyperinflation, but rather a long period of lower living standards and relative decline compared to what the country could have achieved.
B. Crisis in Developing Economies For poorer, developing nations, the risk is much more immediate and severe. They often borrow in U.S. dollars or other foreign currencies, meaning they can't simply print their way out of debt.
The consequences are:
Default: The country misses payments on its loans. Lebanon, Sri Lanka, and Zambia are recent examples.
Austerity and Social Chaos: International lenders (like the IMF) require severe spending cuts on essential services like health and education to qualify for a bailout. This leads to social unrest, a sharp rise in poverty, and political instability. The UN reports that billions of people live in countries that spend more on interest payments than on health or education.
This theory often posits that a secretive elite (sometimes linked to international bankers, the IMF, the World Economic Forum, or the UN) is manipulating financial crises to destroy national sovereignty and replace it with a totalitarian global system.
What is happening in reality?
Increased Interdependence: The economic reality is that global crises (like the 2008 financial crisis or the COVID-19 pandemic) have exposed how interconnected the world is. When one major country faces a severe crisis, the effects spill over to the rest of the world.
International Cooperation (Not Rule): This interdependence forces countries to cooperate through organizations like the IMF, World Bank, and G20 to manage crises and prevent global financial collapse. This cooperation can involve conditions on aid (which can feel like a loss of sovereignty, as seen in the Greek debt crisis), but it is a complex form of global governance, not a unified, totalitarian world government.
While the debt crisis does highlight the increasing vulnerability of nations to international forces and the power of global institutions, there is no evidence to support the claim that this is part of a deliberate, coordinated plan to install a single world government.
The world is watching the debt crisis unfold, and many fear the financial and political fallout.
[end of conversation for now]
R u saying Israel will run everything? Via proxies? Might as well just come out as supreme rulers.
I don't know.. like what's going to go on, eventually with how all the countries are totally in debt and never pay it off. A person, who'd try to do that, you'd go bankrupt or something.
What happens is we throw all the natalists in jail and tax the churches to get back what Project 2025 stole.
Purge the jews
Tax the churches. Cope, JG5. You're never going to win, no matter how many alts you make.
Everyone wants the Nazis dead, and soon it will be so.
My username will be very apt for what I'll be doing when it's legal to.
u/scoredinternal calls for violence ⚠️🚨
Kill the Nazis and use their organs to save more useful lives.
u/scoredinternal death threat with cannibalism ⚠️🚨
Cannibalism? Your kind have weird fetishes.