This is a terrible analogy for several reasons.
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Lot's of movies don't have plot leaks because, even with thousands of people working on them for months at a time, the incentive is shit for leaks. Wonder why there was no plot leaks from a shitty movie like The Marvels or Blue Beetle? Because nobody gave a fuck about those capeshit movies. But there were major plot leaks from Avenger's Endgame II galore. And major plot leaks from Indiana Jones and Dial of Destiny actually forced them to reshoot major portions of the movie because a whole lot of people cared about the outcome of both movies.
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Time. Once the movie is out, nobody gives a shit, because we know how the movie ends. Conspiracies like the moon landing as a possible hoax are NEVER put to bed.
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Likewise, a whole lot of people care about something like the moon landing. I don't care whether you think it was real or not, but because the incentive is there for revelations of a fraudulent nature, you'd think someone would come forward by now.
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There are lots of movie leaks, a whole YouTube insider information network has been developed by YouTubers like Lord Doomcock. The exception that a few movies don't somehow have leaks, proves the rule that MOST movies do have leaks. Movies that people don't give a fuck about, surprise surprise, don't have leaks.
TLDR - It's about incentives for leaking.
I'm so glad that a user has provided a description of his thoughts along with a few arguments that let you know that some thought has been put into the subject. Some people here, namely u/conspirologist, are so infantile that the majority of their posts took longer to write than he took to put thought into it.
While I don't fully agree with your argument, mostly because I don't have enough knowledge of the subject, I applaud the work out into it. I definitely won't try debating any points because I don't have any of the prerequisite information. I will say though that I rate everything unknown on a possible/probable scale. The possibility of what you are claiming now holds the same value as any argument I've heard for the opposite but you have provided reasons that push the probability of it being true to your side.