I've long (mostly) agreed with your thesis on this, but 20 years is such a big gamble. Then again... 4.6% for twenty years, in a Japan-esque deflationary spiral, would be like a golden goose.
Not to mention, in such a scenario interest rates at the banks would be negative, so everybody would be looking for somewhere to park the money where it doesn't get deleted. To be honest, if rates spike up drastically, let's say 8-9%, I would definitely consider putting half of our money into 10 year bonds.
BTW, I agree about the market's inability to handle higher rates, but something tells me they've got an ace up their sleeve, perhaps primarily because every single person I talk to / read / watch says rates are goin back to zero. They always manage to do the opposite of what everyone expects.
I've long (mostly) agreed with your thesis on this, but 20 years is such a big gamble. Then again... 4.6% for twenty years, in a Japan-esque deflationary spiral, would be like a golden goose.
Not to mention, in such a scenario interest rates at the banks would be negative, so everybody would be looking for somewhere to park the money where it doesn't get deleted. To be honest, if rates spike up drastically, let's say 8-9%, I would definitely consider putting half of our money into 10 year bonds.
LOL @ excited about bonds.
BTW, I agree about the market's inability to handle higher rates, but something tells me they've got an ace up their sleeve, perhaps primarily because every single person I talk to / read / watch says rates are goin back to zero. They always manage to do the opposite of what everyone expects.