I think this is honestly the most accurate version of the future, barring some kind of drastic change due to AI, war, etc. Your prediction of the feds reaction to this mild-ish stagflation scenario is also corroborated by their actions in the 70s.
One of the reasons my wife and I decided to buy a house again this fall, after we sold our house in late summer, was because I was concerned about how long this process will take. A lot of people are waiting for quick things like "house prices are gonna drop by 30% this year", but the reality is we could see fairly flat markets in a lot of areas for 5 or 10 years, and we just didn't want to be in some kind of bullshit rental for an indeterminate amount of time. Holding onto hundreds of thousands of fiat dollars didn't sound particularly appealing, despite the good feeling of having a huge cushion for a rainy day, because you just never know when the Fed is going to put it or some bullshit rug pull is going to happen (digital Covid, new plandemic, civil war, etc.), and everything is going to be lost, so I'd rather us be in a house that we can say is "ours" than in somebody else's house when SHTF.
Exactly, it was a tough bullet to bite when we decided to buy (knowing that we will take a hit, but the trade-off being that we are not in a rental for perhaps half a decade - at times it feels like a consumer decision, doing something because we want it rather than because it's the financially prudent thing to do, but... literal YOLO comes to mind).
We did spend less than our last house, but because the rates went up, even with the big down payment (most of the prior sale proceeds), our mortgage is actually more per month now. At some point, once we're able to refinance, the payment will be lower than our last house. Until then, I'll feel sick about the situation, especially if prices do tank quickly.
Because I'm paranoid about the financial climate, I'm always more likely to keep more cash, even if we have a loan racking up interest (mortgage / car leases are the only debt). My wife would always pay a little extra on the mortgage, she used to convince me and listen to my rants about how we need to keep cash, and then she finally just started doing it every month. After five years we owed like $30,000 less on our house when we sold it, and we saved a few grand in interest.
I think this is honestly the most accurate version of the future, barring some kind of drastic change due to AI, war, etc. Your prediction of the feds reaction to this mild-ish stagflation scenario is also corroborated by their actions in the 70s.
One of the reasons my wife and I decided to buy a house again this fall, after we sold our house in late summer, was because I was concerned about how long this process will take. A lot of people are waiting for quick things like "house prices are gonna drop by 30% this year", but the reality is we could see fairly flat markets in a lot of areas for 5 or 10 years, and we just didn't want to be in some kind of bullshit rental for an indeterminate amount of time. Holding onto hundreds of thousands of fiat dollars didn't sound particularly appealing, despite the good feeling of having a huge cushion for a rainy day, because you just never know when the Fed is going to put it or some bullshit rug pull is going to happen (digital Covid, new plandemic, civil war, etc.), and everything is going to be lost, so I'd rather us be in a house that we can say is "ours" than in somebody else's house when SHTF.
Exactly, it was a tough bullet to bite when we decided to buy (knowing that we will take a hit, but the trade-off being that we are not in a rental for perhaps half a decade - at times it feels like a consumer decision, doing something because we want it rather than because it's the financially prudent thing to do, but... literal YOLO comes to mind).
We did spend less than our last house, but because the rates went up, even with the big down payment (most of the prior sale proceeds), our mortgage is actually more per month now. At some point, once we're able to refinance, the payment will be lower than our last house. Until then, I'll feel sick about the situation, especially if prices do tank quickly.
I think you made the right choice. Having a landlord sucks!
Absolutely true.
Because I'm paranoid about the financial climate, I'm always more likely to keep more cash, even if we have a loan racking up interest (mortgage / car leases are the only debt). My wife would always pay a little extra on the mortgage, she used to convince me and listen to my rants about how we need to keep cash, and then she finally just started doing it every month. After five years we owed like $30,000 less on our house when we sold it, and we saved a few grand in interest.