On one hand I agree with your thesis, if you're specifically talking about the baby boomer die-off demographic collapse, but on the other hand, without more explicit tightening by the Fed, where are the assets going to go? Boomers have money and assets that will liquidate, sending the price of homes downwards in predominantly older population areas (Florida, Arizona, etc.), and sending in the price of blue chip stocks and bonds downwards, but these liquidations will also put trillions in M1 into the economy.
Edit: I just read your reply to mostly peaceful NATO below, I agree 100%, and my bit above also supports that scenario (deflation in real assets, inflation in services, etc.). Even looking at a simple example, you can imagine some millennial selling off his boomer parents' house and spending the money on Netflix, fleshlights, and ultimately a sex change.
On one hand I agree with your thesis, if you're specifically talking about the baby boomer die-off demographic collapse, but on the other hand, without more explicit tightening by the Fed, where are the assets going to go? Boomers have money and assets that will liquidate, sending the price of homes downwards in predominantly older population areas (Florida, Arizona, etc.), and sending in the price of blue chip stocks and bonds downwards, but these liquidations will also put trillions in M1 into the economy.
Edit: I just read your reply to mostly peaceful NATO below, I agree 100%, and my bit above also supports that scenario (deflation in real assets, inflation in services, etc.). Even looking at a simple example, you can imagine some millennial selling off his boomer parents' house and spending the money on Netflix, fleshlights, and ultimately a sex change.