Oh wow, I did not know TLT was this oversold. Tells you the market doesn't think the Fed will stop the interest hikes for some time. Of course, it's forward looking, so your March calls could pay off big when the jobless claims start rolling in over the winter.
I'm starting to be at least semi-convinced they are going to hold into their rate hikes for some time (at least through winter) and that they'll ignore layoffs, etc. for far too long, just like they did with the "transitory" inflation, because I think they want the crash. We basically skipped the last Shemetah or however that word is spelled (anyway, the 7 year cycle) with that little mini crash in 2015. I think this time could be for real, and long lasting. The thing that keeps making me think this, aside from FedEx today, is the fact that so many people keep expecting it to turn around.
BTW, I listen to this guy whenever the markets are acting crazy - he has good commentary:
Oh wow, I did not know TLT was this oversold. Tells you the market doesn't think the Fed will stop the interest hikes for some time. Of course, it's forward looking, so your March calls could pay off big when the jobless claims start rolling in over the winter.
I'm starting to be at least semi-convinced they are going to hold into their rate hikes for some time (at least through winter) and that they'll ignore layoffs, etc. for far too long, just like they did with the "transitory" inflation, because I think they want the crash. We basically skipped the last Shemetah or however that word is spelled (anyway, the 7 year cycle) with that little mini crash in 2015. I think this time could be for real, and long lasting. The thing that keeps making me think this, aside from FedEx today, is the fact that so many people keep expecting it to turn around.
BTW, I listen to this guy whenever the markets are acting crazy - he has good commentary:
https://youtu.be/Qm7Mdc_av4o
I agree (re: gonna take a lot of things breaking to break bubble mindset)