If this thesis plans out, you *might * be able play it by shorting the other currencies. For example TLT. Though, i think this would be noisier and less likely to see as much movement.
Completely agree. I just laugh when thinking about how "investment advisors / financial advisors" cope with the fact its so obviously rigged and fake. A 'really free stock market' would of totally crashed at the beginning of the plannedemic.. but NOPE its been pumped up on life support with fake injections of capital via our corrupt government. I pulled all my stocks out 6 months after covid.
Potentially though tangential since this relates to Rubel:USD. As dollar devalues this will drive up the price of gold in USD. Granted that PMs are non performing assets so rising rates will pull them down relatively speaking. Since interest rates < inflation rate, seems that assets will appreciate as measured in USD.
I agree that China will likely devalue. They need to do this in order to create enough liquidity within the yuan to create a competitive petro fiat to USD. Perhaps this is why they are in extreme lockdowns still: demand destruction to minimize price increases as they print
If citizens can't go to a bank to trade Ruble for oil/gold, then it's a worthless paper currency like all the rest.
Also, the only "pegging" Russia has done so far, is "pegging" BUY price of gold to US$1450/oz, while the market price is US$1900 (aka. in Putin's favor).
So they are willing to pay you 75% of market rate using a worthless paper currency that no one wants. Wooow, what a deal! /s
Even if Russian GDP does well this year -- and they might, considering they won't have an oil and food shortage like NATO countries -- Ruble will still be SHIT.
At least it's backed by assets. Look how much a difference that has already made for them weak though it may be. 1900/1450 --> seems likely to cause ruble to appreciate and dollar to depreciate until these converge.
1900/1450 --> seems likely to cause ruble to appreciate and dollar to depreciate until these converge.
Lol, no, what are you smoking?
The only way to lower the price of an asset is to flood the market to lower demand.
Like with GameStop, if everyone bought PUTS (aka. is selling the stock), the price drops because there's a high supply and low demand.
Russia pegging at US$1450 demonstrates they want Gold, means the Demand has just increased because there's more BUY orders, but Supply remains the same, so now the price of Gold will go even higher... probably $2000 and beyond.
If this thesis plans out, you *might * be able play it by shorting the other currencies. For example TLT. Though, i think this would be noisier and less likely to see as much movement.
Why not? I have no issues ordering Ruble from currency exchanges.
Completely agree. I just laugh when thinking about how "investment advisors / financial advisors" cope with the fact its so obviously rigged and fake. A 'really free stock market' would of totally crashed at the beginning of the plannedemic.. but NOPE its been pumped up on life support with fake injections of capital via our corrupt government. I pulled all my stocks out 6 months after covid.
Potentially though tangential since this relates to Rubel:USD. As dollar devalues this will drive up the price of gold in USD. Granted that PMs are non performing assets so rising rates will pull them down relatively speaking. Since interest rates < inflation rate, seems that assets will appreciate as measured in USD.
If you can buy fewer goods with the same currency than it has reduced in value. Inflation is essentially just measuring the inversion of this.
I agree that China will likely devalue. They need to do this in order to create enough liquidity within the yuan to create a competitive petro fiat to USD. Perhaps this is why they are in extreme lockdowns still: demand destruction to minimize price increases as they print
Src is Yahoo! Finance.
If citizens can't go to a bank to trade Ruble for oil/gold, then it's a worthless paper currency like all the rest.
Also, the only "pegging" Russia has done so far, is "pegging" BUY price of gold to US$1450/oz, while the market price is US$1900 (aka. in Putin's favor).
So they are willing to pay you 75% of market rate using a worthless paper currency that no one wants. Wooow, what a deal! /s
Even if Russian GDP does well this year -- and they might, considering they won't have an oil and food shortage like NATO countries -- Ruble will still be SHIT.
At least it's backed by assets. Look how much a difference that has already made for them weak though it may be. 1900/1450 --> seems likely to cause ruble to appreciate and dollar to depreciate until these converge.
Lol, no, what are you smoking?
The only way to lower the price of an asset is to flood the market to lower demand.
Like with GameStop, if everyone bought PUTS (aka. is selling the stock), the price drops because there's a high supply and low demand.
Russia pegging at US$1450 demonstrates they want Gold, means the Demand has just increased because there's more BUY orders, but Supply remains the same, so now the price of Gold will go even higher... probably $2000 and beyond.
Or price stays the same and the rubel gets revalued until the orders fill. With fiat there's always two dimensions
Fiat never goes up lol. If it does, they just print more.
Safe to say this situation is unprecedented. Time to start thinking outside the box.
Ammunition, seeds, chickens.
They are also forcing countries to buy oil using the Ruble, or purchase from accounts in Russian banks.