Wanted to add perspective here: "normal" job reports have been 200-300K decline lately. This report from a private payroll company is saying it's already larger than normal based upon just their data. ADP has ~12% marketshare so the actual report might be 5-6x worse. Over a million lost jobs in one month. Wow.
I was short treasuries for a stretch then wound that down into energy. Doing alright except i did not position well ahead of the rapid pullback in growth. I mean i anticipated it since they're ridiculously over priced but figured they'd wait until close to rate increases 2q
Not disputing this. I'm not sure how often the ADP jobs number is in line with the 'official jobs report'. My understanding is that they two reports may present conflicting information (perhaps I'm wrong).
Even if the job numbers crater, will the stock market plunge? The market is addicted to bad information because it believes the Fed will step in and save the day
I'm inclined to believed ADP. The government is performing surveys and constantly revised their numbers from previous months. Seems like ADPs numbers would be much more legit since its their literal business. Maybe I'm missing something. I also don't trust the government.
yah RIGHT. that's utter bullshit. just for the hell of it, i applied to over 20 jobs in the past 3 weeks. 10 of those were URGENTLY HIRING. guess how many called me back? ...3. and the hours were TRASH. 130 am - 12 pm LOL. and shit like 330am to 2 pm LOL. fuck that
Src/ https://adpemploymentreport.com/2022/January/NER/Report
Wanted to add perspective here: "normal" job reports have been 200-300K decline lately. This report from a private payroll company is saying it's already larger than normal based upon just their data. ADP has ~12% marketshare so the actual report might be 5-6x worse. Over a million lost jobs in one month. Wow.
Democrats do that
I've been hedging but maybe i start inverting. Hard to consider betting against the infinity press
I was short treasuries for a stretch then wound that down into energy. Doing alright except i did not position well ahead of the rapid pullback in growth. I mean i anticipated it since they're ridiculously over priced but figured they'd wait until close to rate increases 2q
I wouldn't be surprised if we see XOM >$200. I like both palladium and platinum but also expect them to struggle given hawks
Not disputing this. I'm not sure how often the ADP jobs number is in line with the 'official jobs report'. My understanding is that they two reports may present conflicting information (perhaps I'm wrong).
Even if the job numbers crater, will the stock market plunge? The market is addicted to bad information because it believes the Fed will step in and save the day
It's private payroll data
Did I not call this? (The two reports may present conflicting information)
Yeah. Which do you believe? Frankly, we know that the Gov has changed their reporting methods. They're just buying time. Smart money knows.
I'm inclined to believed ADP. The government is performing surveys and constantly revised their numbers from previous months. Seems like ADPs numbers would be much more legit since its their literal business. Maybe I'm missing something. I also don't trust the government.
but i thought everyone was HIRRRINGGGGG
yah RIGHT. that's utter bullshit. just for the hell of it, i applied to over 20 jobs in the past 3 weeks. 10 of those were URGENTLY HIRING. guess how many called me back? ...3. and the hours were TRASH. 130 am - 12 pm LOL. and shit like 330am to 2 pm LOL. fuck that
There's a phrase they're using note to describe this. Something such as "economic misalignment"
I'm not sure about buying puts because they can always produce their own numbers and say jobs were added.