Computing the number of deaths likely caused by the vaccines
Now let’s look at the numbers from Openvars.com which is a consumer-friendly website for looking at the VAERS data. The red-box summary page for domestic events (slide the slider at the top to the right) shows 9,623 deaths of Americans:
Also, note the deaths graph above. It’s a flatline for 30 years, then spikes up this year. In short, either:
Everyone suddenly decided to start using VAERS this year and these are all background deaths OR
The vaccines are super dangerous OR
A combination of 1 and 2.
The final bottom graph is a clue. The death rate peaks one day after vaccination. This is a hint of causality since if it were just likelihood to report, you’d see it exponentially decline from day 0.
If the vaccine were harmless, that fatality graph would be flat. It isn’t.
But the short story is that 1) people’s behavior is really hard to change, 2) there has been no campaign to try to encourage reporting to VAERS, 3) most doctors don’t know about VAERS or report to VAERS (in my interview with Dr. Kreitzman, for example, he said he knew hundreds of doctors and none of them reported to VAERS). You are welcome to do you own survey of doctors to validate this. None of my detractors ever do this, including the FDA. They never have any data to back up their claims of “oh, this is just because people are reporting more.” And none of the so-called fact checkers ever ask them for proof of that.
The bottom line is this: a conservative estimate of the number of deaths caused by the vaccine is:
(9623-2*223)*41.3 = 379,010
To be more conservative, let’s assume that anyone who had COVID and died, died from COVID. So we remove 2,087 deaths * 41.3 = 86,193 and are left with
292,817 American deaths caused by the vaccine
In short, the US government is responsible for the killing of hundreds of thousand of Americans and not a single member of Congress is calling for a stop to the vaccines. That’s really stunning.
The argument that correlation isn’t causality
Scientists love to argue that correlation isn’t causality.
But we can show all of the Bradford-Hill causality criteria are satisfied.
But it’s simpler just to point out that the excess deaths are there and they are huge. If it wasn’t the vaccine that caused these people to die, then what did?
Nobody can answer that question.
How to calculate the URF
We showed how to calculate the URF in the summary at the start of this articl
How to validate the results
We validated the calculations by estimating the excess deaths 12 different ways that didn’t involve using VAERS:
Excess CFR analysis
Excess death analysis
Small island study
Norway data
Poll #1
Poll #2
Doctor survey
Pilot data (British Airways)
Scotland data
Columbia university excess death analysis using public datasets from US and Europe
Indiana insurance company excess death rate 40% increase in 18 - 64 year-olds
Pfizer 6 month trial all-cause mortality data (21 vs. 17)
This is why when I talk about the deaths caused by the vaccine, I almost always use the 150,000 figure since it is the most conservative, but my closest estimate to the true number is 300,000 at this time.
The statistics used in the executive summary
Here is the backup for three of the numbers used in the executive summary (B, C, and F). The other numbers are directly available at the website referenced in the summary.
Why are the authorities so afraid to challenge my methods?
No recognized expert on the pro-vaccine side will debate me or any of my statistics and VAERS experts on this. Nobody.
Eric Topol blocked me. The FDA and CDC don’t answer. Even when a former NY Times writer asked, they refused to discuss it with him (so it’s nothing personal). I couldn’t even get a debate with ZdoggMD or Your local epidemiologist. None of these people wants to appear on camera to challenge me on this.
UPenn Professor Jeffrey Morris said my number was wrong, but he admitted he was clueless as to what the number was. Only that it couldn’t be that high. Really? How can he know that if he can’t calculate the number and is clueless himself on how to estimate it?
I point out that I used the methodology of the CDC, I used the death count from the government database, and I used anaphylaxis rates from a study in JAMA. So if I made a mistake, where is it? No answer.
I’ve invited Professor Morris to a live video recorded discussion for everyone to see, and he refuses every time. I’m just a lowly engineer with a couple of degrees from MIT in electrical engineering and computer science. He’s a professor and Director of the Division of Biostatistics at UPenn. But he’s afraid of me. Here’s more on Professor Morris.
Gordon Cormack, a computer science professor at University of Waterloo, loves to argue that he disagrees with my methodology. Hey, I’m just going by the CDC’s methodology and using the most accurate numbers I can find. I’m fine with being wrong if he would just show us all the correct answer. But he never does. Here’s a typical response that I send him:
Why don't you show me the proper way to estimate the number killed by the vaccine, and then show me 12 independent ways that validate you got it right? What is the number YOU calculated? And if I got it wrong, why not claim the $1M prize I offered on correcting Mathew Crawford’s analysis?
Gordon responds it’s impossible to estimate the number killed. Then how can he be so sure that all these calculations by different people using different methods that come to the same answer are all wrong?
Stay tuned for Part II
In Part II of this article, I’ll delve into the history of VAERS, why it is set up to fail, how the CDC sabotaged a “better VAERS.”
Computing the number of deaths likely caused by the vaccines
Now let’s look at the numbers from Openvars.com which is a consumer-friendly website for looking at the VAERS data. The red-box summary page for domestic events (slide the slider at the top to the right) shows 9,623 deaths of Americans:
Also, note the deaths graph above. It’s a flatline for 30 years, then spikes up this year. In short, either:
Everyone suddenly decided to start using VAERS this year and these are all background deaths OR
The vaccines are super dangerous OR
A combination of 1 and 2.
The final bottom graph is a clue. The death rate peaks one day after vaccination. This is a hint of causality since if it were just likelihood to report, you’d see it exponentially decline from day 0.
If the vaccine were harmless, that fatality graph would be flat. It isn’t.
For an in-depth discussion of why virtually all the deaths are reason #2, see Estimating the number of COVID vaccine deaths in America. [pdf]
But the short story is that 1) people’s behavior is really hard to change, 2) there has been no campaign to try to encourage reporting to VAERS, 3) most doctors don’t know about VAERS or report to VAERS (in my interview with Dr. Kreitzman, for example, he said he knew hundreds of doctors and none of them reported to VAERS). You are welcome to do you own survey of doctors to validate this. None of my detractors ever do this, including the FDA. They never have any data to back up their claims of “oh, this is just because people are reporting more.” And none of the so-called fact checkers ever ask them for proof of that.
The bottom line is this: a conservative estimate of the number of deaths caused by the vaccine is:
(9623-2*223)*41.3 = 379,010
To be more conservative, let’s assume that anyone who had COVID and died, died from COVID. So we remove 2,087 deaths * 41.3 = 86,193 and are left with
292,817 American deaths caused by the vaccine
In short, the US government is responsible for the killing of hundreds of thousand of Americans and not a single member of Congress is calling for a stop to the vaccines. That’s really stunning.
The argument that correlation isn’t causality
Scientists love to argue that correlation isn’t causality.
But we can show all of the Bradford-Hill causality criteria are satisfied.
But it’s simpler just to point out that the excess deaths are there and they are huge. If it wasn’t the vaccine that caused these people to die, then what did?
Nobody can answer that question.
How to calculate the URF
We showed how to calculate the URF in the summary at the start of this articl
How to validate the results
We validated the calculations by estimating the excess deaths 12 different ways that didn’t involve using VAERS:
Excess CFR analysis
Excess death analysis
Small island study
Norway data
Poll #1
Poll #2
Doctor survey
Pilot data (British Airways)
Scotland data
Columbia university excess death analysis using public datasets from US and Europe
Indiana insurance company excess death rate 40% increase in 18 - 64 year-olds
Pfizer 6 month trial all-cause mortality data (21 vs. 17)
Each of these methods found an excess death rate of 150,000 or more. The methods are detailed in this document. [pdf]
This is why when I talk about the deaths caused by the vaccine, I almost always use the 150,000 figure since it is the most conservative, but my closest estimate to the true number is 300,000 at this time.
The statistics used in the executive summary
Here is the backup for three of the numbers used in the executive summary (B, C, and F). The other numbers are directly available at the website referenced in the summary.
B
C
F
Why are the authorities so afraid to challenge my methods?
No recognized expert on the pro-vaccine side will debate me or any of my statistics and VAERS experts on this. Nobody.
Eric Topol blocked me. The FDA and CDC don’t answer. Even when a former NY Times writer asked, they refused to discuss it with him (so it’s nothing personal). I couldn’t even get a debate with ZdoggMD or Your local epidemiologist. None of these people wants to appear on camera to challenge me on this.
UPenn Professor Jeffrey Morris said my number was wrong, but he admitted he was clueless as to what the number was. Only that it couldn’t be that high. Really? How can he know that if he can’t calculate the number and is clueless himself on how to estimate it?
I point out that I used the methodology of the CDC, I used the death count from the government database, and I used anaphylaxis rates from a study in JAMA. So if I made a mistake, where is it? No answer.
I’ve invited Professor Morris to a live video recorded discussion for everyone to see, and he refuses every time. I’m just a lowly engineer with a couple of degrees from MIT in electrical engineering and computer science. He’s a professor and Director of the Division of Biostatistics at UPenn. But he’s afraid of me. Here’s more on Professor Morris.
Gordon Cormack, a computer science professor at University of Waterloo, loves to argue that he disagrees with my methodology. Hey, I’m just going by the CDC’s methodology and using the most accurate numbers I can find. I’m fine with being wrong if he would just show us all the correct answer. But he never does. Here’s a typical response that I send him:
Gordon responds it’s impossible to estimate the number killed. Then how can he be so sure that all these calculations by different people using different methods that come to the same answer are all wrong? Stay tuned for Part II
In Part II of this article, I’ll delve into the history of VAERS, why it is set up to fail, how the CDC sabotaged a “better VAERS.”