Assuming the 2/5 odds are true, assuming random odds at each shot, and 2 shots and a booster, there would be 6% change to get only saline and no live rounds.
Here's what I think is going on: I think the first round of shots were saline (the early shots), then as people got more comfortable with no reactions, they started putting in the dirty shots and called them "boosters" - because their efficacy was so low, they created mutant strains (similar to what a weak antibiotic would do with bacteria). That created Delta, which then provided the need for everyone to get another booster, which I think will be 100% dirty. Stay away from the vaccine at all costs!
Assuming the 2/5 odds are true, assuming random odds at each shot, and 2 shots and a booster, there would be 6% change to get only saline and no live rounds.
wut
It would be:
chance for first shot AND second shot to be saline = (2/5)*(2/5) = (4/25) = 16%
chance for one to be saline, one to be live = (2/5)*(3/5)*2 = (12/25) = 48%
chance for both shots to be live = (3/5)*(3/5) = (9/25) = 36%
So this is where it gets interesting. Enter booster dose regime .
What are the odds now?
Here's what I think is going on: I think the first round of shots were saline (the early shots), then as people got more comfortable with no reactions, they started putting in the dirty shots and called them "boosters" - because their efficacy was so low, they created mutant strains (similar to what a weak antibiotic would do with bacteria). That created Delta, which then provided the need for everyone to get another booster, which I think will be 100% dirty. Stay away from the vaccine at all costs!
Bro just do the same calcs please !
What will be the odds if we add one booster now (i.e. a third dose)?
It's ok if you cannot calculate that; I can't