I really am interested in your thoughts, as you seem to bother to look at numbers which is nice :)
But yeah, points 1 and 3 are just wrong because the CDC data I used (and thus my numbers above) are TOTAL DEATHS for all causes.
I'm not sure #2 is actually an issue, but I'm happy to re-run the numbers in 2 weeks. I seriously doubt (given the numbers being reported the last couple weeks) that it will narrow the gap at all. If anything I expect it to widen further.
Replied to your other comment, and yeah I mistakenly assumed you were running the flu numbers from that data set. (I blame the CDC's awful data presentation practices.)
Anyway, point 2 is the main issue.
We should both take a look when more numbers come out. My guess is that the gap will narrow. It'll probably be something like 100-150k over 2019. But even if it grows to 300k+ we still have to keep in mind that that represents an excess 0.1% of the total population that died.
I really am interested in your thoughts, as you seem to bother to look at numbers which is nice :)
But yeah, points 1 and 3 are just wrong because the CDC data I used (and thus my numbers above) are TOTAL DEATHS for all causes.
I'm not sure #2 is actually an issue, but I'm happy to re-run the numbers in 2 weeks. I seriously doubt (given the numbers being reported the last couple weeks) that it will narrow the gap at all. If anything I expect it to widen further.
Replied to your other comment, and yeah I mistakenly assumed you were running the flu numbers from that data set. (I blame the CDC's awful data presentation practices.)
Anyway, point 2 is the main issue.
We should both take a look when more numbers come out. My guess is that the gap will narrow. It'll probably be something like 100-150k over 2019. But even if it grows to 300k+ we still have to keep in mind that that represents an excess 0.1% of the total population that died.