I'm cross-posting this from theDonald since I think it'll interest both communities.
This is a couple of days of me processing the most recent CDC data on total US deaths into graphs and some basic companion analysis.
My intent is to cut through the bullshit of "excess deaths" that is always being reported. Here you can see the raw data and associated trends represented clearly without superfluous statistical manipulations.
I tried to keep my own judgements about the data to a minimum, so you can draw your own conclusions based on what you see.
IIRC, that study processes the data to look at the percentage distribution of causes of deaths among total deaths, so it's not looking at how many people died, but rather if the proportions seem off.
To reach its conclusions, there were a some assumptions made about how things are supposed to look, so while it's intriguing, there are many way a skeptic could explain away the conclusions.
The data you're pulling tallies pneumonia/influenza deaths. There are some problems when 2020 is factored in.
I have doubts on how the CDC or health systems are categorizing "flu/pneumonia deaths". Are they lumping all "COVID positive" deaths in there, even the ones where people died of other causes? This categorization is a point for data manipulation, and that's why I think total deaths from all causes shows a better, less potentially skewed picture.
By tallying years only until week 47, this leaves out a large chunk of flu season deaths from previous years. As shown in my graphs, 2020 does not have the same death distribution as any other year. Tallying up to week 47 only will make it seem that previous years were not as bad as they were while looking at the worst part of 2020.
Running the numbers like you and the CDC did, you arrive at 300,000+ excess flu/pneumonia deaths, but looking at all reported deaths so far, there are only about 70,000 more deaths than 2019. This is within previously seen yearly variations. One would think that if the CDC were being "honest" with their analysis, you would not see such an obviously inflated number. How could there be 300,000 more flu deaths when only 70,000 more people total have died in 2020 compared to 2019?
Of course, the rest of 2020's death count needs to come in before saying anything for sure, but it looks like we may come in within historical variation or maybe slightly above it...but nothing like the world ending calamity the MSM has been making it out to be.
Sorry, some confusion because the CDC shows data in the most infuriatingly obfuscating manner possible, and when I see a data set listed as flu/pneumonia deaths I assume the data is about flu/pneumonia deaths.
Anyway, your numbers do show the total deaths, but as I said, these would be underreported not-2020 years because a good portion of flu deaths occur in the last weeks of the year in normal years.
It's an misleading conclusion to claim that we're at 300,000+ more deaths this year especially because there is apparently no flu season in 2020. Right now our count is about 70k above 2019's total.
We really need to wait for the end of this year though to see the final numbers.
I really am interested in your thoughts, as you seem to bother to look at numbers which is nice :)
But yeah, points 1 and 3 are just wrong because the CDC data I used (and thus my numbers above) are TOTAL DEATHS for all causes.
I'm not sure #2 is actually an issue, but I'm happy to re-run the numbers in 2 weeks. I seriously doubt (given the numbers being reported the last couple weeks) that it will narrow the gap at all. If anything I expect it to widen further.
Replied to your other comment, and yeah I mistakenly assumed you were running the flu numbers from that data set. (I blame the CDC's awful data presentation practices.)
Anyway, point 2 is the main issue.
We should both take a look when more numbers come out. My guess is that the gap will narrow. It'll probably be something like 100-150k over 2019. But even if it grows to 300k+ we still have to keep in mind that that represents an excess 0.1% of the total population that died.
This is great, thanks for the post. I actually think we’re going to see higher then average death rates in the coming years as all these lock downs have caused so many people to neglect their health (or just lose their mental health) and a lot of issues have gone undiagnosed by doctors because they’re not seeing patients.
The toll this going to have on every country can’t be understated.
I'm cross-posting this from theDonald since I think it'll interest both communities.
This is a couple of days of me processing the most recent CDC data on total US deaths into graphs and some basic companion analysis.
My intent is to cut through the bullshit of "excess deaths" that is always being reported. Here you can see the raw data and associated trends represented clearly without superfluous statistical manipulations.
I tried to keep my own judgements about the data to a minimum, so you can draw your own conclusions based on what you see.
Too bad Trump fell for this. He should have locked Fauci up.
Hopkins retracted this: https://web.archive.org/web/20201126163323/https://www.jhunewsletter.com/article/2020/11/a-closer-look-at-u-s-deaths-due-to-covid-19
IIRC, that study processes the data to look at the percentage distribution of causes of deaths among total deaths, so it's not looking at how many people died, but rather if the proportions seem off.
To reach its conclusions, there were a some assumptions made about how things are supposed to look, so while it's intriguing, there are many way a skeptic could explain away the conclusions.
I also ran some numbers myself, though much fewer numbers :)
I pulled the last 4 years of weekly raw data from the CDC here: https://gis.cdc.gov/grasp/fluview/mortality.html
Then I tallied and compared the totals for the first 47 weeks of each year:
2017 2515944
2018 2551868
2019 2559485
2020 2886361
Based on this data, total deaths are indeed up over 300,000 this year vs each of the last 3 years, which were each within 50,000 of one another.
That seems significant to me. What are your thoughts OP?
Cool, so these are my thoughts...
The data you're pulling tallies pneumonia/influenza deaths. There are some problems when 2020 is factored in.
I have doubts on how the CDC or health systems are categorizing "flu/pneumonia deaths". Are they lumping all "COVID positive" deaths in there, even the ones where people died of other causes? This categorization is a point for data manipulation, and that's why I think total deaths from all causes shows a better, less potentially skewed picture.
By tallying years only until week 47, this leaves out a large chunk of flu season deaths from previous years. As shown in my graphs, 2020 does not have the same death distribution as any other year. Tallying up to week 47 only will make it seem that previous years were not as bad as they were while looking at the worst part of 2020.
Running the numbers like you and the CDC did, you arrive at 300,000+ excess flu/pneumonia deaths, but looking at all reported deaths so far, there are only about 70,000 more deaths than 2019. This is within previously seen yearly variations. One would think that if the CDC were being "honest" with their analysis, you would not see such an obviously inflated number. How could there be 300,000 more flu deaths when only 70,000 more people total have died in 2020 compared to 2019?
Of course, the rest of 2020's death count needs to come in before saying anything for sure, but it looks like we may come in within historical variation or maybe slightly above it...but nothing like the world ending calamity the MSM has been making it out to be.
Nah man, the numbers from that page are TOTAL DEATHS of all causes.
Sorry, some confusion because the CDC shows data in the most infuriatingly obfuscating manner possible, and when I see a data set listed as flu/pneumonia deaths I assume the data is about flu/pneumonia deaths.
Anyway, your numbers do show the total deaths, but as I said, these would be underreported not-2020 years because a good portion of flu deaths occur in the last weeks of the year in normal years.
It's an misleading conclusion to claim that we're at 300,000+ more deaths this year especially because there is apparently no flu season in 2020. Right now our count is about 70k above 2019's total.
We really need to wait for the end of this year though to see the final numbers.
Yeah, it was somewhat infuriating to find and pull the data I needed from that site :)
Fair enough, I agree that it would be best to compare full years, I'll revisit this after the year is over.
I really am interested in your thoughts, as you seem to bother to look at numbers which is nice :)
But yeah, points 1 and 3 are just wrong because the CDC data I used (and thus my numbers above) are TOTAL DEATHS for all causes.
I'm not sure #2 is actually an issue, but I'm happy to re-run the numbers in 2 weeks. I seriously doubt (given the numbers being reported the last couple weeks) that it will narrow the gap at all. If anything I expect it to widen further.
Replied to your other comment, and yeah I mistakenly assumed you were running the flu numbers from that data set. (I blame the CDC's awful data presentation practices.)
Anyway, point 2 is the main issue.
We should both take a look when more numbers come out. My guess is that the gap will narrow. It'll probably be something like 100-150k over 2019. But even if it grows to 300k+ we still have to keep in mind that that represents an excess 0.1% of the total population that died.
This is great, thanks for the post. I actually think we’re going to see higher then average death rates in the coming years as all these lock downs have caused so many people to neglect their health (or just lose their mental health) and a lot of issues have gone undiagnosed by doctors because they’re not seeing patients.
The toll this going to have on every country can’t be understated.