I'm not modeling my plans after Blackrock. I'm stating that, if Blackrock is buying tens of thousands of houses at the "top" of the market, then I am a fool to assume they are just idiots making an obvious strategic mistake, and that we can cleverly wait for a huge discount that they were too stupid to wait for.

What I'm afraid of is that we are already at the "blood in the streets" part of this short downturn and the Fed is going to pivot and, by attempting to time the market, we are going to turn our personal home purchase into a failed, years-long waiting game, all the while blowing our money on rent instead of interest.

Everybody is expecting the real estate market to do what it did in 2008 to 2011. Maybe it will. But look at house prices in the 70s and 80s when the interest rates skyrocketed. The housing market went sideways for over a decade. We are not gonna wait for a decade.

I'm not modeling my plans after Blackrock. I'm determining that, if Black rock is buying houses at the top of the market, then I am a fool to assume they are making an obvious strategic mistake and that we can cleverly wait for a huge discount. What I'm afraid of is that we are already at the "blood in the streets" part of this downturn and the Fed is going to pivot and, by attempting to time the market, we are going to turn our home purchase into a years long waiting game. Everybody else is expecting the real estate market to do what it did in 2008 to 2011. Maybe it will, but I'm not going to presume to be better at this stuff than the largest investment company to ever have existed.