"As humans we're naturally used to explaining things based upon events that have happened"
I am explaining this by ignoring events, not by including events that have happened. Because we always move onto the second round, as the first round doesn't count, and we will always be shown a goat at that time. Therefor, there is no actual choice in the first round. It is always a 1/2 choice, in the second round.
Again, I must insist that you examine the first diagram in the "Conditional probability by direct calculation" section, and give me your thoughts on this matter.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Monty_Hall_problem#Conditional_probability_by_direct_calculation
As it boils down to 3 choices at 1/3, with one being given a false choice dividing it to two choices of 1/6.
Or 3 equally probable conclusions, from 3 doors.
Note: the diagram shows 8 probable outcomes 1/2 of which are car. This aligns with my "First round doesn't count logic"
"As humans we're naturally used to explaining things based upon events that have happened"
I am explaining this by ignoring events, not by including events that have happened. Because we always move onto the second round, as the first round doesn't count, and we will always be shown a goat at that time. Therefor, there is no actual choice in the first round. It is always a 1/2 choice, in the second round.
Again, I must insist that you examine the first diagram in the "Conditional probability by direct calculation" section, and give me your thoughts on this matter.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Monty_Hall_problem#Conditional_probability_by_direct_calculation
As it boils down to 3 choices at 1/3, with one being given a false choice dividing it to two choices of 1/6.
Or 3 equally probable conclusions, from 3 doors.
"As humans we're naturally used to explaining things based upon events that have happened"
I am explaining this by ignoring events, not by including events that have happened. Because we always move onto the second round, as the first round doesn't count, and we will always be shown a goat at that time. Therefor, there is no actual choice in the first round. It is always a 1/2 choice, in the second round.
Again, I must insist that you examine the first diagram in the "Conditional probability by direct calculation" section, and give me your thoughts on this matter.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Monty_Hall_problem#Conditional_probability_by_direct_calculation
As it boils down to 3 choices at 1/3, with one being given a false choice dividing it to two choices of 1/6.
Or 3 equal conclusions, from 3 doors.
"As humans we're naturally used to explaining things based upon events that have happened"
I am explaining this by ignoring events, not by including events that have happened. Because we always move onto the second round, as the first round doesn't count, and we will always be shown a goat at that time. Therefor, there is no actual choice in the first round. It is always a 1/2 choice, in the second round.
Again, I must insist that you examine the first diagram in the "Conditional probability by direct calculation" section, and give me your thoughts on this matter.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Monty_Hall_problem#Conditional_probability_by_direct_calculation
As it boils down to 3 choices at 1/3 or for choices at, with one being given a false choice dividing it to two choices of 1/6.
Or 3 equal conclusions.
"As humans we're naturally used to explaining things based upon events that have happened"
I am explaining this by ignoring events, not by including events that have happened. Because we always move onto the second round, as the first round doesn't count, and we will always be shown a goat at that time. Therefor, there is no actual choice in the first round. It is always a 1/2 choice, in the second round.
Again, I must insist that you examine the first diagram in the "Conditional probability by direct calculation" section, and give me your thoughts on this matter.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Monty_Hall_problem#Conditional_probability_by_direct_calculation
As it boils down to 3 choices at 1/3 or for choices at, with one being given a false choice dividing it to two choices of 1/6.
Or 4 equal conclusions.
"As humans we're naturally used to explaining things based upon events that have happened"
I am explaining this by ignoring events, not by including events that have happened. Because we always move onto the second round, as the first round doesn't count, and we will always be shown a goat at that time. Therefor, there is no actual choice in the first round. It is always a 1/2 choice, in the second round.
Again, I must insist that you examine the first diagram in the "Conditional probability by direct calculation" section, and give me your thoughts on this matter.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Monty_Hall_problem#Conditional_probability_by_direct_calculation