Well, considering:

1. This has happened before
2. Solar and astronomical cycles are real
3. We are in a fairly muted solar cycle -> making our protective heliosphere smaller
4. Earth's magnetic poles are moving -> making our earth magnetosphere weaker

It is just a matter of time before we get a near direct or full on direct hit from a class X solar flare.

Nobody knows whether it is next week, next month, next decade or next centennia. That's just statistics.