I'm in favor of being skeptical of current narratives. But here's my thesis:
Regarding inflation: we are running huge deficits and the only way this government will pay them off is by decreasing the value of outstanding loans (by decreasing the purchasing power of the US dollar).
We have a bubble based economy. It goes from one mania to the next. Real estate had it's over-exuberance. Crypto has reached absurd levels. Technology stocks (AI especially) have reached their highs. Warren Buffet is holding more cash than ever (he represents the smart money). When the air comes out of those bubbles and people are disillusioned I predict a return to safe havens and that bubble already began last year in gold. That was driven mainly by central banks (smart money) and if true there could be another leg of the average person jumping on the band wagon (as people like to do).
Personally I think the gold bubble might take the momentum as the other's deflate.
Or maybe I'm wrong. I don't care all that much. At most I might lose 1/3 of my networth in the short term, but if I bet right maybe I double it. It's a fun game to play.
I'm in favor of being skeptical of current narratives. But here's my thesis:
Regarding inflation: we are running huge deficits and the only way this government will pay them off is by decreasing the value of outstanding loans (by decreasing the purchasing power of the US dollar).
We have a bubble based economy. It goes from one mania to the next. Real estate had it's over-exuberance. Crypto has reached absurd levels. Technology stocks (AI especially) have reached their highs. Warren Buffet is holding more cash than ever (he represents the smart money). When the air comes out of those bubbles and people are disillusioned I predict a return to safe havens and that bubble already began last year in gold. That was driven mainly by central banks (smart money) and if true there could be another leg of the average person jumping on the band wagon (as people like to do).
Personally I think the gold bubble might take the momentum as the other's deflate.
Or maybe I'm wrong. I don't care all that much. At most I might lose 1/3 of my networth in the short term, but if I bet right maybe I double it. It's a fun game to play.