Bullet trajectory, compared to where he had his band aid
(media.scored.co)
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That was the first shot that went wide. It was the second shot that clipped him.
oh, ok.. that makes sense how it wasn't the shot that hit his ear. Case closed.
Not a lot of good video clearly shows that he tilts his head sideways towards his left shoulder and the microphone, which he does at many speeches, and that placed the ear edge right onto the path of the next round. Personally, i would be taking a long hard look at the photographer, positioned precisely, and with a very high resolution, high speed frame rate camera, who would have caught the blood bone and brain spray if either round had hit. Coincidence?