I think They're caught on the horns of a dilemma, one They weren't sure existed with the Ukraine War, but They're hella sure this time around.

On the one hand and as you say, the walls just close in further on these scumbags every day, both in Israel and the US. There just does not seem a viable path out of it outside of war, where chaos gets unleashed. It's like a super weak chess position where you overturn the board, hoping you can sneak a few pieces to different positions as you put them back.

But on the other hand, the Ukraine War was a catastrophe and the Gaza War is turning out to be a worse catastrophe, smaller in scale but far more rapid, and still only fighting Hamas and a bit of Hezbollah and Yemen. If They really wanted a war with Iran, no provocations are even necessary at this point. Just false flag it, as you mention. Easy as, say. CIA planting a bomb at a US base in Iraq and saying it was an Iranian drone. Make sure a US diplomat or two is there.

And all this is staring down the barrel of November 2024 and what's shaping up to be a Trump tidal wave. No rational paths (no matter how evil) seem available. I think we should just expect the unexpected.