Hahaha.

80% Russia. 20% Natural. Maybe 60. 40%. Naturally these things happen. It had damage. It was old and not serviced in warfare. An accident. It was also over capacity.

Objectively, hahaha, it really put a dampener on a counteroffensive coming from that Kherson side. It is now evacuated. It was the danger when Russia occupied it. This dam. It really fucks up that side. Russian held territory not as much. Higher ground. Crossing a flooded river is much harder. Going across floodplains is also much harder. Various bridges had been targeted in this conflict.

There is small danger to the nuclear reactor but it's minimal unless the other dam by it goes.

Odds put Russia as a culprit. Although natural causes are a factor.