I saw a clip of the strike the night it happened. It looked like a nuke at first glance, but not conclusive. I didn't bother researching it because it turns out no one really cares about analyses such as these. (Much easier to make stuff up or just ignore it, you see.) I was finally triggered (haha) to take another look by this story:
Exclusive: IAEA Said BIG Tactical Nuke Used by Russia Near Kherson, US Ordered It Covered Up (Confirmed) (The Intel Drop 5/5/2023)
Why precisely did the US order it covered up? That's what I wanted to know. I didn't find out in the article because it has no text. Knowing their (purported) calculus could be important and it's still an open question.
But let me note here that many, many dozens of nuclear devices have been used in various hostilities over the decades. That includes in the current conflict, like this 2014 blast at a depot in Czechia holding munitions for (you guessed it) Ukraine:
A Look Back At The Deadly 2014 Czech Depot Blast That Prague Is Now Blaming On Russian Agents (RFE/RL 4/18/2021)
Look at the size of the crater, and how almost all of a reinforced concrete bunker was obliterated by a blast centered outside the structure. Oh yeah, and the dude in the full hazmat suit.
The night of the Pavlohrad strike, there was--interestingly enough--a rumor on 4chan reposted on Reddit that Kiev got nuked. Maybe it did too, but I have no info:
Kyiv nuked according to 4chan, thoughts? (5/1/2023)
First, was there anything in Pavlohrad worth nuking? Maybe. Estimates in the recent "leaks" were that Ukraine was going to run out of air defense missiles later this month. This strike may have moved that up to about... now. The third-hand rumor you can read in this tweet claims two divisions (up to 16 installations) of S-300P, along with supply vehicles and reloads, were destroyed. One would guess these were staged for whatever spring Kherson "counter-offensive" Ukraine/NATO has in mind. Maybe it's off the table now.
On to the meat of the analysis and the article I stumbled across today:
Incredible Destruction Seen At Ukrainian Rocket Storage Site That Detonated After Russian Strike (Updated) (The Drive 5/4/2023)
About 2/3 of the way down you'll find this tweet with b/w security cam footage of the event. What you'll see is this: First, far in the distance, a conventional cruise missile strike. Then at 0:25, there are two more or less simultaneous detonations. The closer one is another conventional warhead, and you can't even see the shadow of the column of dust and smoke for a few seconds because the camera sensor had it's soul blown out by the glare of the nuke behind it.
There are a few things to notice about the nuke blast. It's obviously different than the other two, dwarfing them. The glare is huge, and persists for quite a while. The shockwave is clear and titanic. Chunks of flaming missile propellant and explosives are scattered very, very far. Also note that it's "all in one go", not the slow "cooking off" process of an ammo depot fire.
Now to orient yourself, I refer you to the last couple of sat pics in the article. The security cam was off to the "left". You can see the pinprick of damage by the conventional warhead on the left, and the devastation on the upper right. They knew just what bunker to hit and they annihilated it. The blast also ravaged all the nearby bunkers. Remember these are reinforced concrete behind earthen berms.
Finally, the first half of the article includes closer photos of the bunker. More precisely, where the bunker used to be. Note that the extreme heat of the nuke and wide scattering of flaming debris burnt all the greenery for hundreds of meters around the site.
So did the Ukraine War go nuclear, yes or no? You probably didn't expect it, but it's really a philosophical question, isn't i? As I mentioned, nukes have been used in anger numerous times.How do they keep it secret? Easy: they don't tell you about it. Well, you'll say, people could find out for themselves. I know. I just did. But virtually no one else does. That's my point. Not hard to keep a secret when no one is looking for it.
Using inductive logic, we can do some further thinking:
First, let's dispense with all the talk of a "fake war". What do you need real nukes for in a fake war? People that buy into this seem moronic to me. I invite any morons to declare themselves.
Second, there's so much talk about NATO conducting a "nuclear false flag". Well, they could have just called this one out for what it was, right? But they didn't, and there's something to be learned from that. (Personally, I think "They" do not have control of any nukes any longer.)
Third, Russia is "in it to win it", and they are going to do what they feel is necessary and appropriate to accomplish that. So many people say, "Russia issues all these warnings, but the pussies never do anything about it!" Well, now we've all seen them do something supposedly "unthinkable", they just didn't bother announcing it. So again, all the people that include "russkies are pussies!" as part of what they call thinking seem like total ignoramuses to me.
If you read this far, thanks, and I hope you got something out of it. Also, congratulations on having an attention span on the far-right of the bell curve.
As you have to know, after Chernobyl, many in Belorus, Ukraine and Western Russia have Geiger counters. They was massively produced after disaster and are not rare things here. Even now ebay/amazon filled with Russian SBM-20 Geiger tubes and devices build around them.
So, if nuke blast was the thing in Pavlograd, then both pro-Ukrainian and pro-Russian communities of that town would have been flooded respective telegram channels with videos of their Geiger counters showing leveled up radiation in the town, blaming either Russians who drop a nuke either Ukrainians who hide a nuke in storage respectively. There are nuclear weapons with low radiation fallout, but it still present and perfectly detectable.
So, despite the theory is interesting, there are no any chance that this could pass without huge flood of messages about radiation levels over social media. There are too many radiation counters and dosimeters on hands here, they are not some rare lab or military equipment, they are home appliances to check the berries and vegetables bought from farmers.
Lots of speculation about Geiger counters. Can you link to anyone that actually checked?
For anyone that wishes to inform themselves beyond the low-yield reasoning of "If it was real I would have already known about it!", then you may be interested in this article:
Just How Radioactive Are Low-Yield Nuclear Weapons? (The Drive 12/19/2022)
I would add that for such people that live in a reality of "If it was real I would have already known about it!", how very comforting it must be. Regrettably, it comes at the cost of learning of learning anything new.
F.e. aforementioned SBM-20. Worldwide perfectly known well-tested and long lasting Geiger tube. Anything based on that tube will work fine.
You could easily check your Geiger counter with any radioactive sample, from smoke detectors to thoriated welding tungsten sticks. Geiger tube based counter is a simple device, it is either works, either not. There can't be a situation if it registers background radiation level, but does not detect radioactive substances. Geiger counters easlily could be checked against background radiation level. If it gives you pulses you could just count them and using sensitivity value of used Geiger tube (f.e. from here https://www.gstube.com/catalog/9/) validate your counter. If it gives any pulses for flying through gamma-photons for background radiation, it means it works and it will shurely give you more pulses if there will be more radiation around.
You just can't miss the fact that radiation level become higher than usual background level after certain event. It doesn't have to be deadly or even harmful at all, just if you always had 15uR/h (0.15uSv/h) and suddenly it become 25(0.25) this will inevitably attract attention, and today you will hear a constant scream in social media.
Did you miss a link? https://www.gstube.com/catalog/9/ Or https://sites.google.com/site/diygeigercounter/technical/gm-tubes-supported
Basically, SBM-20, J305, J304 and M4011 are affordable tubes most Geiger counters available for regular person are build on.
Find any Geiger counter based on that tubes and that's it.
Note: Those things that plug into smartphone 3.5mm jack have very low sensitivity, they based on p-i-n diode and scintillator which is too small to have a decent sensitivity. They works somehow, but resolution is too low, in the best case they will show you something when radiation level change significantly, but they barely could detect thoriated tungsten welding electrode.