There are plenty of scenarios Ukraine can win. Not as probable as a truce, but a truce still seems distant. Far too distant to be certain.
It can still spill into a much larger conflict. Arms will not decrease. The will to fight might, but for how long? There is no future where peace will last. Ukraine has lost standing, how can it accept conceding lost territory. Whatever gains Russia makes could resist indefinitely, opposing an occupation. It would be the same as in other likewise nations, plenty to draw from. Becoming counter terrorism in claimed territories, never mind the constant propaganda provoking insurgency. If any peace holds. How would peace hold.
What are the stakes ahead. Russia winning here is a bigger blow to NATO. But it simply goes back to the Cold War. Opposing arms build up and competition. Except that geopolitical board has massively changed. There is no real Cold War. Trade today is far more entwined across the Globe. Does it get restructured, but as it does, larger unrest spills. Causing? Never the containment of a Cold War. It spills into. Presumed peace? Tedious. There aren't many scenarios where it is agreed. What are they agreeing too? Sanctions. Lost territory, define those borders and any security. Global arms build up. Nuclear. Space. What about trade, and currency.
Tulsi is selling unicorns again. Peace. If it goes back to the Cold War, what happens.
There are plenty of scenarios Ukraine can win. Not as probable as a truce, but a truce still seems distant. Far too distant to be certain.
It can still spill into a much larger conflict. Arms will not decrease. The will to fight might, but for how long? There is no future where peace will last. Ukraine has lost standing, how can it accept conceding lost territory. Whatever gains Russia makes could resist indefinitely, opposing an occupation. It would be the same as in other likewise nations, plenty to draw from. Becoming counter terrorism in claimed territories, never mind the constant propaganda provoking insurgency. If any peace holds. How would peace hold.
What are the stakes ahead. Russia winning here is a bigger blow to NATO. But it simply goes back to the Cold War. Opposing arms build up and competition. Except that geopolitical board has massively changed. There is no real Cold War. Trade today is far more entwined across the Globe. Does it get restructured, but as it does, larger unrest spills. Causing? Never the containment of a Cold War. It spills into. Presumed peace? Tedious. There aren't many scenarios where it is agreed. What are they agreeing too? Sanctions. Lost territory, define those borders and any security. Global arms build up. Nuclear. Space. What about trade, and currency.
Tulsi is selling unicorns again. Peace. If it goes back to the Cold War, what happens.