The war was inevitable. How it finishes still remains questionable. But it's not going to be over soon. Unless nukes are deployed before then. That risk is quite real.

https://quemadoinstitute.org/2017/08/18/new-us-naval-base-on-ukraines-black-sea-coast/

https://en.usm.media/two-naval-bases-are-being-built-in-ukraine-at-once/

https://www.wearethemighty.com/mighty-trending/us-navy-seals-are-training-with-ukrainian-special-operations-forces/

https://foreignpolicy.com/2022/04/15/tanks-heavy-weapons-ukraine-russia-nato-putin-offensive/

https://eurasiantimes.com/us-could-now-supply-its-most-lethal-attack-drones-to-ukraine/?amp

https://breakingdefense.com/2022/04/for-first-time-ukraine-to-get-us-artillery-in-new-800m-weapons-package/

https://www.hsmilitary.com/2022/02/UK-donates-100-cruise-missiles-to-Ukraine.html?m=1

https://m.republicworld.com/world-news/russia-ukraine-crisis/russia-ukraine-war-british-sas-troops-train-ukrainian-soldiers-as-war-continues-on-day-52-articleshow.html

This press hasn't even scratched that surface.

Simple probability. Using the above. What's in there, as arm sales increase.

Simple probability of what escalation means? How likely will nukes be deployed?

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2022/mar/26/russia-reasserts-right-to-use-nuclear-weapons-in-ukraine-putin

https://www.reuters.com/world/russia-says-us-nato-weapon-transports-ukraine-are-legitimate-targets-2022-04-13/

I could add strategies, where 1000s of Nato troops have been readied to enter. Outside of a number of clandestine operating already. But there's no point currently. Suggesting the war will be over soon is dubious. How it progresses can only escalate.