Suppose you have a random set of 1000 elderly, say 1000 70 year olds. If all 1000 take a Covid vaccine shot today, probably 1 of them will die in a week. What is the chance that any of 1000 will die of Covid infection or will die of any cause in a week?

Suppose you have a random set of 1,000,000 teenagers, and think of how many of them drop dead in a week after the vaccine shot. And think of how many of them drop dead in a week of Covid infection.